Decision advantage
is a weapon system.
We build decision intelligence systems for commanders, analysts, and program managers who need to compress the OODA loop, show their work to oversight, and defend every call under scrutiny.
The Problem
You don't have a data problem. You have a synthesis problem.
Your analysts are drowning in feeds, reports, and dashboards. The data is there. The synthesis layer that turns it into a defensible decision at OODA speed is what's missing. We build it.
Meanwhile, every AI vendor in your inbox is promising "revolutionary" capabilities with demos that look great on commercial data and fall apart at classification. You've seen this movie before.
AI pilots that never reach production
Impressive demos, zero operational impact. The CDAO has identified scaling from pilot to production as the #1 barrier to DoD AI adoption.
Black-box outputs you can't brief upward
"The algorithm said so" does not survive a Congressional hearing, a GAO audit, or an IG investigation. Commanders need to show their work.
Consulting decks gathering dust
You paid for strategy. You got PowerPoint. The recommendations were outdated before the ink dried because the environment changed and the analysis couldn't.
Vendor lock-in on your own data
Proprietary platforms where government data goes in and doesn't come out. No API, no interoperability, no data sovereignty.
Mission Areas
Organized around your mission
Competitive Assessment & Strategic Intelligence
Net assessment across military, economic, and technological domains. We build analytical architectures that synthesize across classification levels and time horizons to surface competitive asymmetries and generate testable hypotheses.
- Multi-domain competitive assessment (military, economic, technological)
- Victory hypothesis generation and ACH-grounded COA development
- Assumption surfacing, red team analysis, and war-gaming support
- Long-horizon strategic trend analysis with quantified confidence
Technology Scouting & S&T Assessment
Tracking 225M+ publications, patents, and emerging capabilities across the global S&T literature. Identifying who is working on what, where the breakthroughs are coming from, and what they mean for national security.
- Global bibliometric network analysis and research mapping
- Emerging technology identification and capability forecasting
- Foreign S&T assessment and research security evaluation
- Innovation pipeline discovery across adversary ecosystems
Decision Architectures for Complex Operations
Structured decision support for coalition-grade, multi-stakeholder problems. Transforming ambiguous, high-stakes situations into actionable frameworks with explicit assumptions, causal models, and auditable reasoning chains.
- Sensor-to-decision pipeline acceleration
- Bayesian confidence calibration and causal analysis
- Multi-perspective synthesis across intelligence disciplines
- Decision audit trails for Congressional and IG oversight
From knowledge graph construction to ACH-based reasoning and wargaming simulation. Designed for deployment at classification, integrated with your existing workflows.
Past Performance
We've done this work before.
Our team has spent over a decade building analytical systems for the defense and intelligence community. These are representative engagements.
DARPA
Built analytical platforms for mapping global S&T ecosystems and identifying emerging capability trajectories across adversary research networks.
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
CSET
Built science mapping, automated text annotation and classification systems, and S&T growth prediction models for analyzing emerging technology trajectories across global research ecosystems.
Center for Security and Emerging Technology
Marshall Foundation
Built a knowledge graph research console over the Foundation's digital archive of Office of Net Assessment materials. Verified archive content and AI-generated inference are visually distinguished throughout, so researchers can think with the corpus without confusing what it says with what the model extrapolates.
The Andrew W. Marshall Foundation
Noble Reach
Built systems for automated extraction and classification of S&T problem statements, paired with regional expertise matching to connect mission needs with the researchers and institutions best positioned to address them.
Noble Reach Foundation
Additional past performance details and CPARS references available upon request with appropriate need-to-know.
DoD AI Alignment
Built for the standards the CDAO is setting.
The Chief Digital and AI Officer has been explicit. DoD wants AI that scales past pilots, models that are explainable, and solutions that operate at classification. We built Syntheos for exactly that mandate.
Production AI from day one
Our systems are designed for sustained operational use. MLOps, model governance, and continuous monitoring are part of the architecture from the first commit.
Explainable & Auditable
Every output includes full evidence lineage, explicit assumptions, and plain-language justification. Built for leaders who answer to Congress, GAO, and the Inspector General.
Human-Machine Teaming
AI augments analysts and decision-makers, and human judgment stays in the loop. The reasoning stays visible. Your data stays yours.
Secure by Architecture
Designed for classified environments from the start. Data sovereignty, air-gapped deployment options, and zero-trust compatibility are architectural decisions made before the first commit.
Security & Compliance
Compliance posture
NIST SP 800-171
In ProgressCUI protection controls
DFARS 252.204-7012
In ProgressSafeguarding covered defense information
CMMC 2.0 Level 2
In ProgressThird-party assessment
Responsible AI
By DesignDoD AI Ethical Principles aligned
Compliance documentation available upon request as certifications are completed.
How to Acquire
Acquisition pathways
NAICS Codes
Contract Vehicles & Mechanisms
- Direct award and competitive task orders
- Other Transaction Authorities (OTAs)
- Broad Agency Announcements (BAA)
- Open to Commercial Solutions Openings (CSOs)
- Open as subcontractor on major IDIQs
- GSA Schedule (in progress)
Registration
Registered in SAM.gov • CAGE Code available upon request
UEI and DUNS details available for teaming arrangements
Caleb Smith
Founder & CEO
Published researcher in bibliometrics and research intelligence. Former Partner at SciTech Strategies and Director of Research Intelligence & Analytics at the University of Michigan Medical School, where he built analytical frameworks for mapping global S&T ecosystems, detecting scientific innovation, and predicting research trajectories.
His work for clients including DARPA, CSET, and the Marshall Foundation bridges the gap between raw intelligence data and executive action. He builds the systems that let leaders move from ambiguity to defensible decisions at mission speed.
Published in Scientometrics & MIT Press • Partner, SciTech Strategies • University of Michigan Medical School • DARPA, CSET, Marshall Foundation
Initiate Contact
Ready to discuss your mission requirements?
Tell us about the decision problem you're trying to solve. We'll schedule a classified or unclassified briefing with our principals to assess fit and discuss acquisition pathways.
Direct Contact
Program Managers & Contracting Officers: info@syntheos.io
Classification
This form is unclassified. For classified discussions, contact us via the email addresses above to arrange a secure channel.