Welcome to Syntheos

Decisions you can defend.
Fast.

We build explainable decision systems for leaders in defense, healthcare, and research that help you move faster, reduce risk, and show your work to commanders, boards, regulators, and the press.
About Syntheos
From battlefield to boardroom, we build decision systems tailored to your domain. You get deployed intelligence solutions, not consulting decks.
130 Years
Collective Expertise
Deep expertise across defense, healthcare, and research policy
110+
Peer-Reviewed Publications
5
High-Stakes Sectors
0
Black Boxes
Expertise

Decision Intelligence for High-Stakes Environments

We specialize in building decision systems that withstand scrutiny from commanders, boards, regulators, and oversight. Our expertise spans evidence synthesis, provenance tracking, and human-AI teaming. All designed to accelerate decisions without sacrificing accountability.
Automated evidence pipelines that reduce synthesis from weeks to minutes while preserving full source lineage
Traceable decision logic with explicit assumptions and audit-ready provenance for every recommendation
Flexible deployment through API, secure workspace, or advisory engagement. We aim to integrate without disrupting existing workflows
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Services

Decision Intelligence for Strategic Advantage

Strategic Intelligence

01
AI-powered strategic analysis using Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS). Identifying competitive asymmetries, testing victory hypotheses, and generating actionable courses of action.
Victory hypothesis generation & testing
Asymetry mining & competitive positioning
MCTS-driven strategic pathway exploration
Evidence-backed COA development
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Technology Intelligence

02
Advanced technology scouting combining bibliometric analysis, horizon scanning, and graph-based reasoning. We track more than 225M publications and emerging capabilities across the global scientific landscape.
Technology discovery, S&T assessment
Global bibliometric network analysis
Innovation pipeline discovery and mapping
Research Security & emerging capability evaluation
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Decision Architectures

03
Structured approaches to large-scale, coalition-grade challenges. Transforming ambiguous, high-stakes problems into actionable frameworks, decision pathways, and program portfolios.
Bayesian confidence calibration and causal analysis
Assumpiton surfacing & red team analysis
Mega-scale problem identification & characterization
Automated multi-perspective synthesis
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From knowledge graph construction to MCTS reasoning and wargaming simulation, we provide the analytical infrastructure for high-stakes strategic decisions.
Industries

Service Areas

Tech Transfer | R&D Decisions

Portfolio decisions in tech transfer are inherently high-uncertainty. You can't predict which bets will pay off, but you can make them systematically, document your reasoning, and move faster than the backlog allows.
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Defense & National Security

Competitive assessment demands synthesis across military, economic, and technological domains over long time horizons. Traceable reasoning. Explicit assumptions you can challenge, test, and refine.
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Policy & Research Funding

Research outcomes are diffuse, long-term, and hard to attribute. Traceable pathways from funding to real-world impact, with evidence that holds up to auditors, oversight, and the press.
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Infrastructure & Public Risk

You can't fix everything. The job is to prioritize rationally and document why, so that when regulators, elected officials, or the public ask questions, you have evidence and reasoning, not just good intentions.
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Healthcare & Biomedical Research

Clinicians don't need more alerts or dashboards. They need to know what changed, why it matters, and where to verify. Delivered where care happens, not in another system to check.
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Custom Decision Systems

Some decisions don't fit a playbook. When the stakes are high and off-the-shelf doesn't work, we build around the decision itself: who owns it, what evidence it requires, who will scrutinize the outcome. Human judgment stays in the loop. The reasoning stays visible. Your data stays yours.
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We focus on diagnostic, reality-oriented analysis where we combine deep research, purpose-built analytical platforms, and domain expertise to solve problems where conventional approaches fail.
Caleb Smith headshot
Caleb Smith
Founder & CEO
Our Approach
From problem formulation to decision-ready intelligence. Transform strategic ambiguity into analytical clarity
01
Frame the Contest
Most strategic failures begin with the wrong question. We start by structuring the problem. We identify what's actually decisive, surface hidden assumptions, and build analytical architectures tailored to the specific challenge.
02
Deploy Purpose-Built Systems
We've built platforms like Deepfield that combine knowledge graphs, MCTS reasoning, and bibliometric analysis, but every domain is different. We adapt our methods to the problem, not the problem to our methods. Sometimes that means original research, sometimes simulation, sometimes deep technical scouting.
03
Deliver Decision-Ready Intelligence
We don't stop at insights. Our systems deliver actionable courses of action with full evidence lineage, tested assumptions, and quantified confidence. This is the analytical infrastructe that enables decisive action in complex environments.
FAQ

Questions From Leaders Who've Been Here Before

These are the questions that come up when we talk to leaders who've seen enough vendor pitches to be skeptical. They're worth asking of anyone in this space, including us.
We've invested in AI initiatives before that didn't pan out. What's different here?

AI projects often fail because they're framed as technical projects when they're actually organizational change projects. Someone buys a platform, a team builds models, the models perform well on test data, and then nothing changes. The decisions get made the same way they always did, by the same people, using the same inputs. The AI sits on the side, technically functional and organizationally irrelevant.

The usual culprit is starting from the wrong end. "We have all this data, what can we do with it?" is a recipe for building impressive demos that don't matter. So is "leadership wants an AI initiative." These projects optimize for what's measurable by technologists: model accuracy, processing speed, data coverage. But the people making decisions don't care about F1 scores. They care about whether they can trust the output, explain it to their boss, and defend it when things go wrong.

We start from the other end: a specific decision that matters, made by specific people, who answer to specific stakeholders. What evidence do they need? What does defensible look like in their world? Where does their current process break down? The technical architecture follows from those answers, not the other way around.

This is less exciting than a general-purpose AI platform. It's slower to show results in a demo. But it's the difference between a system that gets used and a system that gets abandoned.

Our data is scattered across systems and isn't always clean. Is that a dealbreaker?

No. Every organization has messy data. Legacy systems that don't talk to each other. Inconsistent formats across departments. Critical knowledge that lives in someone's head or in email threads that never got documented. This isn't a sign that you're not ready. It's normal. It's what real organizations look like.

Human decision-makers work with imperfect information every day. That's the job. You rarely have complete data, perfect consistency, or full confidence in your sources. You make the best call you can with what you have, while staying aware of what you don't know. A good decision system should work the same way.

What matters isn't whether your data is clean. What matters is whether you can see where it's not. The dangerous systems are the ones that ingest whatever they're given and produce confident-looking outputs. You get a false sense of reliability because the mess is hidden from view. We take the opposite approach: surface the gaps, make uncertainty explicit, track provenance so you know where each piece of evidence came from and how much weight to give it.

Sometimes the most valuable early output is just showing decision-makers where their evidence base is weak. That's not a failure of the system. That's the system working. You can't improve what you can't see, and you can't account for risks you don't know exist.

How do you handle sensitive or classified information

For most engagements, we don't need direct access to your sensitive materials at all. We build systems that integrate with your data sources—whether that's proprietary research, controlled technical data, or classified intelligence repositories—without Syntheos ever touching the contents.

Here's how it works: we set up development environments using synthetic data repositories that mirror the structure and behavior of your actual sources. We build and test the entire workflow against that synthetic layer. When you deploy internally, your team swaps in the real data sources. The system doesn't know the difference. It was built to the right interface from the start.

This approach lets us serve clients in highly restricted environments without requiring us to hold clearances or access controlled materials. You get a working decision system; your data never leaves your control.

What happens when the system gets something wrong?

Every source has errors or the potential for error. Ours included. There's no infallible oracle we're secretly plugged into. The system will get something wrong at some point.

But that's true of every input you use to make decisions: analysts, reports, databases, advisors. How we handle this in daily life without being paralyzed is that we learn what sources are good at and what they're not. You might have a colleague who's brilliant at technical analysis but terrible at reading organizational politics. You learn to trust her on the first thing and verify her on the second.

The trick isn't to always be right. The trick is to fail predictably. We build systems that show their work so you can learn what you can trust without validation and what needs a second look. Then we make verification as fast as possible, surfacing the reasoning, the sources, and the assumptions so you can check them without digging.

And here's the thing: regardless of whether you trust a system or not, you should always know how it arrived at its answer. When you're called to defend a decision of consequence to a board, a commander, a regulator, or the press, "the AI told me to" is never going to be sufficient. You need to own the decision. Our job is to make sure you can.

We don't have a large data science team. Can we still implement this?

Honestly, a large data science team can be as much hindrance as help. We've seen projects fail with twenty engineers and succeed with two people who deeply understand the decisions being made. The difference is almost never technical capacity.

The real requirements are domain expertise and organizational willingness. You need people who know what a good decision looks like in your context, who can tell us when the system's outputs don't pass the smell test, and who have enough authority to actually change how decisions get made. That's usually a senior analyst, a program lead, a section chief. Not a machine learning team.

We handle the technical build: integrations, pipelines, interfaces. What we can't do is understand your decision environment better than you do. We'll ask a lot of questions early on, and the quality of your answers matters more than your technical stack.

Over time, we train your team to operate and extend the system. But we size that to your reality. Some clients have dedicated analytics groups who want to own the infrastructure. Others have one overworked analyst who needs something that just works. Both can succeed. The failure pattern we see is when organizations treat this as a technical project and staff it with engineers who don't have the domain credibility to push for adoption. A working system that nobody uses is worse than no system at all.

How is this different from hiring a strategy consulting firm?

Consultants are in the advice business. They analyze your situation, develop recommendations, present them compellingly, and leave. The value is in the quality of their thinking applied to your specific problem at a specific moment in time. That's genuinely useful for certain things like navigating a reorganization, evaluating an acquisition, developing a new strategy. Problems that are one-time or infrequent, where you need outside perspective and horsepower.

We're in a different business. We build infrastructure for decisions that recur: the weekly triage, the quarterly allocation review, the ongoing portfolio assessment. The output isn't a report. It's a working system that your team operates after we're gone. The goal isn't to make one decision well, it's to make a category of decisions permanently better.

A consulting report, no matter how good, is a snapshot. It reflects the information and analysis available at a point in time. Six months later, the world has moved on and the report is stale. You either live with outdated recommendations or pay for another engagement. A decision system continues to ingest new evidence and update its outputs. The analysis stays current because the infrastructure is doing the work.

That said, we're not competing with consultants for the same problems. If you need help figuring out whether to enter a new market or how to restructure your division, you should hire a consulting firm. That's not what we do. What we've noticed is that many consulting engagements end with recommendations the organization can't sustain because they don't have the decision infrastructure to operationalize them. "Be more data-driven" is easy to say. Actually doing it requires systems, not just intent.

If, during an engagement, it becomes apparent that you need advice, like organizational change management that's outside what we do, we will tell you that you need a consultant. Hopefully they'll do the same when they learn a potential client needs decision infrastructure rather than advice. There's no reason it has to be one or the other.

Get in Touch

Tell us about the decision you're trying to improve.

We'll schedule a 30-minute briefing with our principals to understand your environment and see if there's a fit.